January 28th 2017
Saturday Morning Edition
Saturday Morning Coffee
Every Saturday morning it’s time to pour a cup of Joe and discuss the more sports news, rumors, and topics from around the world of sports from this fan’s perspective. Comment if you like, post a question, this is your forum to speak your mind.
Matt Ryan has Arrived
Myth or Fact.
So Matt ryan’s elevation of play and MVP talk this season should not come as much of a surprise. His arrival has been a long time coming, so this is not much of a rumor or new information for discussion, but I would certainly agree this could be up for debate.
Matt Ryan has been a solid quarterback throughout his career and this season he’s elevated his play to that next level. Is this an anomaly or a trend? Is this a result of great coaching? Or is this a result of having all the pieces?
Some might say, well he has Julio Jones, arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL today. Maybe so, but Tom Brady had Randy Moss and he didn’t win the Super Bowl. Having a elite pass catcher does not define a quarterbacks greatness. Some might credit Kyle Shanahan’s brilliance as an Offensive coordinator. Kyle has been a difference maker yes.
But I would credit all three.
I am not going to post all kinds of numbers and cite a lot of statistics, but they are there for the research and undeniable.
It is my opinion from watching a lot of the Falcons this season, that Ryan has taken that next step. We have seen his play in the past and he’s capable of big numbers; his six straight seasons of passing for more than 4,000 yards display that fact.
What has been different about Ryan the past several seasons and what he displayed this season is his passing accuracy and command of the offense. Remember, he’s been doing this since 2011, but this is only Shanahan’s second season with the Falcons, and yes Kyle’s infulence can be seen in Ryan’s meteoric numbers.
Add the final pieces that have taken Ryan to the next level; a loaded backfield (Devonta Freemen and Tevin Coleman), the superstar receiver (Jones), and a couple of nice complementary pieces (Taylor Gabriel and Mohamed Sanu) to complete the set.
Shanahan and the Falcons have done of great job of finding the right talent and utilizing what they have to it’s fullest potential. And Ryan has been the most responsible for the execution and the Falcons offense blossoming into one of the most effective and prolific scoring machines fans have seen since the Rams “Greatest Show on Turf.”
Other teams can boast similar talents and playmakers, but Ryan has not only elevated his own play, but he’s carried a lot of the talent around him to their next level; passing touchdowns to 13 different players this season. The result has been a magical season for the Falcons and the arrival of the next elite quarterback in the NFL.
In the fantasy football arena, we talk about Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees, being on one level, but after what we have seen Ryan pull this season (4,944 yards passing, 38 touchdowns, 69.9% completions) he has to be part of the conversation.
In the real world, it’s his play in the playoffs that warrant his consideration as an elite passer; when he’s all done, his resume will say plenty about where he belongs.
Ryan looks to be the odds-on favorite to win the MVP this season with his career numbers and Super Bowl run. A win on the big stage will only put an exclamation point on his arrival. His postseason performances this season have more than cemented his name amongst the elite quarterbacks.
Taking a closer look at what he has done in the playoffs this season (730 yards passing, 7 touchdowns, no picks) should be enough to argue his seat among the best, but I would have to believe some would like to see him hoist the Lombardi to justify his spot.
I am not making any early predictions, but a Falcons victory is not so far fetched. Ryan has been the general of the Falcons offense and he’s been hitting on all cylinders this season, especially in the playoffs. I don’t see anything on the other side to say to me he won’t have similar success.
I’m sure a win on Super Bowl Sunday will end all doubt and place Ryan’s name with the best in the league, but win or lose his performance will speak volumes.
Matty Ice has waited 9 seasons to reach this pinnacle. And for us football fans and fantasy fanatics, we’ll have to wait another 8 days to see the conclusion of this chapter and the completion of Matt Ryan’s rise to the level of the NFL’s elite passers.
That’s Just My Take
~David G Ortega
January 12th, 2017
Thursday late evening Edition
Wednesday Watercooler: Part 2
Every Wednesday it’s time to gather around the Watercooler and discuss the more football news, rumors, and topics from around the NFL from this fan’s perspective. Comment if you like, post a question, this is your forum to speak your mind.
Sunday’s Games
The Chiefs are always tough at Arrowhead, but why I like the Steelers to go into town on Sunday and come out on top is simple; the three B’s (Ben, Bell, Brown) or the New Three Amigos.
Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and LeVeon Bell are explosive when hitting on all cylinders. In the last 6 games that Bell has rushed for over 100 yards, including the playoffs the Steelers have won. In the same six games Brown has caught 39 balls, averaged 86.5 yards receiving, and scored 7 touchdowns. In those games the Steelers offense has generated an average of 27 points per game.
Big Ben (Roethlisberger) and company will need to start fast on Sunday, as they did last week against the Dolphins. The Chiefs defense should pose more challenges for the Steelers offense, but if running back LeVeon Bell can find some early success against the 26the ranked run defense, that will definitely open up the passing game.
From my perspeciive I see the Chiefs as being built for ball control and methodical, but they do have a couple of nice weapons in tight end Travis Kelce and the explosive wide receiver Tyreek Hill. Where I think the Chiefs will fall short in this contest, they are typically not as explosive as the Steelers; should they fall behind and have to strike big in a hurry to get back in the game, this will hurt them. This is not their strength and not the strength of their quarterback Alex Smith.
In this one the Chiefs will fight the good fight and not taking anything away from their defense I believe the Steelers offense will just be too much in the end. I’d expect the Steelers to pull away late and win this by double-digits, 35-24.
The weekend finale promises to be the best for last and I don’t think fans will be disappointed. The Dak and Zeke show should be in full effect, but this one will be all about Air-Rodgers.
By now everyone knows the statistics, everyone knows how hot Aaron Rodgers is playing and on Sunday I believe the Cowboys are going to experience it. This matchup won’t be anything like the first time these two teams hooked up earlier this season.
Americas team, the Dallas Cowboys roll into the Divisional round led by the Wonder Twins, quarterback Dak Prescott (23 passing touchdowns) and running back Ezekiel Elliott (1,631 yards rushing). Both rookies have been sensational this season, but on Sunday it will be the biggest stage either has played on in their young careers. I don’t imagine either will wilt and shrivel in the face of the challenge, but mistakes can happen.
For eight weeks, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense have virtually been mistake free and come Sunday, the Cowboys are going to have to be smart, efficient, and limit their mental errors; missed assignments, wrong reads, poor decisions.
This is the Playoffs, the divisional round. I expect to see the Packers and Rodgers make many plays on Sunday, but I question can the Wonder Twins respond. The Cheeseheads don’t have a dominant defense, so the Cowboys just need to be patient and stay their course. If they get anxious and try to do too much too soon, mistakes can happen. This is where I think this game may go and why I like the Packers on Sunday.
A couple of keys that have me leaning toward the Pack; Rodgers phenomenal play, wide receiver Davante Adams rise (997 yards receiving and 12 touchdowns this season), tight end Jared Cook (last 7 weeks of the season, 24 catches, 261 yards receiving), and the return of a healthy wide receiver Randall Cobb (3 touchdowns in the wildcard round). Having no Jordy Nelson will be tough, but Rodgers has the ability to spread the ball and find his receivers and if his line gives him the time (like last week), he will.
I can’t read minds, don’t have a crystal ball, so I will be watching this weekend’s games closely to the outcome. Regardless of the final scores, one thing I can confidently predict, these games will not disappoint.
This is my take for the Divisional Round.
~David G. Ortega
January 11th, 2017
Wednesday late evening Edition
Wednesday Watercooler: Part 1
Every Wednesday it’s time to gather around the Watercooler and discuss the more football news, rumors, and topics from around the NFL from this fan’s perspective. Comment if you like, post a question, this is your forum to speak your mind.
Next Up Divisional Playoffs
It’s that time of year and as a football fan, excited is an understatement. I am a big sports fan, but with the NFL playoffs underway, that is the hot topic on the table. Last weekend there were no surprises, at least not from this fan’s perspective; I went 4-0 with my picks as all home teams were victorious. This weekend, that feat may prove to be much more difficult. With the top 4 teams from the byes set to host this round of games, picking road teams could be unwise.
In the AFC, the big dog this weekend is the New England Patriots and quarterback Tom Brady. With only 12 games under his belt this season, Brady was among the hottest quarterbacks down the stretch; his last 7 starts, 16 touchdowns with one interception. Brady, with 4 Lombardi trophies has proven to be among the greatest ever under center, he’s at home this weekend, so it’s hard to pick against him and the Pats. So I won’t.
The Patriots have just been too good for so long, Tom Terrific and company appear to be locked on a mission to reach yet another AFC title game. Their opponents the Texans are just going to be in the wrong place at the wrong time come Saturday night.
The matchup doesn’t have the makeup of a barn-burner, but Brady and the Patriots make so few mistakes, as the game moves into the later phases the efficiency of the Patriots offense will force the Texans into taking more risks and likely make mistakes. This one could eventually get away from O’Brien and company.
The early matchup has a lot of my interest, simply because no one is talking about the Atlanta Falcons, yet quarterback Matt Ryan has to be considered an MVP candidate this season. Quiet comes the Ice-man.
The Falcons and Seahawks could be the barn-burner some of us fans enjoy and are looking forward too. The Falcons have the weapons with wide receiver Julio Jones and their two-back committee with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Let’s face the Seahawks defense is not quote the same as it used to be, especially away from Centurylink Field.
Ryan and company earned the bye this season and will enjoy some home cooking on Saturday when they take the field at the Georgia Dome. This could be a huge difference in this matchup. Back in their week 6 battle with the Seahawks the Falcons fell short by two points, but in that contest Ryan passed for 335 yards passing and three touchdowns. One big key for Ryan was his favorite weapon (Julio) Jones, who posted a 7 catch (on 9 targets), 139 yards receiving, and a touchdown.
A couple of new catalysts that could prove to be huge in this matchup is the arrival of Falcons wide receiver Taylor Gabriel and the return of running back Tevin Coleman. In Gabriel’s last 8 games he posted 27 receptions for 472 yards and six touchdowns. Coming back from injury, Coleman has been a scoring machine recording 5 touchdowns in his last six games.
The Seahawks will have some weapons to boast on Saturday as well with quarterback Russell Wilson, tight end Jimmy Graham, running back Thomas Rawls, and wide receiver Doug Baldwin, but they may have trouble matching the firepower the Falcons will be rolling out.
If this game were played in Seattle, I would likely sing a different tune, but I see both defenses bending quite a bit in this one with the Falcons offense doing more damage. Not to take anything away from Wilson and company, but Ryan (4,944 yards passing, 38 touchdowns, 7 interceptions in 2016) has just been cool as ice this season.
These are my picks for Saturday’s contests....(to be continued)
January 7th 2017
Saturday Afternoon Edition
Saturday Morning Coffee
Every Saturday morning it’s time to pour a cup of Joe and discuss the more sports news, rumors, and topics from around the world of sports from this fan’s perspective. Comment if you like, post a question, this is your forum to speak your mind.
So it’s no longer morning, unless you are somewhere in the South Pacific reading this, but it’s never too late in the day for a cup of Joe. So pour a cup and join the conversation, it’s Wildcard Weekend and there’s plenty on the table to discuss today.
Let’s start with today’s matchup for openers.
The Texans and Raiders game provides some interesting storylines. Just three weeks ago, the Raiders were looking more like a team of destiny ready to make a run led by their MVP-like quarterback Derek Carr. But since Carr’s injury in week 16, the Raiders offense has fallen off a cliff.
With Raiders rookie quarterback Conner Cook slated to start and the Texans reverting back to the struggling Brock Osweiler (struggling for a $72 million dollar quarterback), today’s game could have the look of a defensive battle, more than anything else.
The Texans offense in general this season has been a disappointment with Osweiler under center. If they are to come out on top today, Brock is going to have to play a lot better. A couple of keys for him will undoubtedly be his ground game which will be in the hands of running back Lamar Miller. If Miller can have some early success (rushed for 104 yards in week 11 matchup against Raiders), this could open up the short passing game for Osweiler.
The Short passing game will be another key for the Texans today; a volume of completions is needed. If Brock can find his wideouts and in particular his security blanket (tight end) C.J. Fiedorowicz over the middle, a volume of completions will help build his confidence and may open things up downfield. If the Texans are going to overcome the Raiders, Osweiler is going to have to take his shots downfield with both of his receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller.
The Raiders biggest key in my opinion today is relying heavily on their running game to protect their young quarterback. Latavius Murray is going to be huge in this one and I believe the Raiders plan on feeding him the ball a bunch today. Only success on the ground will keep the Raiders in this one. Cook is raw, inexperienced, and on the big stage today, it just may be too much to ask, even with the weapons the Raiders possess outside.
The other biggest key for the Raiders will be their defensive playmaker and potential Defensive Player of the Year, Khalil Mack (11 sacks this season). If he can cause disruption and get to quarterback Brock Osweiler today, turnovers could be the difference in this one.
The Raiders defense will provide some short field opportunities today. With one of the strongest legs in the league, Raiders placekicker Sebastian Janikowski will cash them in, but that won’t be enough. The Texans have a stout defense and they are playing at home, and that will likely be the biggest difference in this one.
This one won’t be pretty, but I have the Texans winning this one 23-16.
For those that will be watching the later matchup as well, quite simply I like the Seahawks for all of the obvious reasons.
The Lions lack a running game, one dimensional. The Seahawks are at home, it’s a night game, weather is their friend, the 12th man, and the Lions are a dome team.
Matthew Stafford has been brilliant this season, playing like a magician leading the Lions comeback from behind time and time again. But Saturday night the magic may run out. Playing through pain and lacking a supporting cast in the run game, the offense may not have enough to be road warriors of the Northwest tonight.
The Seahawks defense is definitely no the same “Legion of Boom” many fans have come to know and love, but they still have plenty of bite with their bark, enough to cause the Lions offense plenty of problems.
And with quarterback Russell Wilson under center, the Seahawks are in good hands. Wilson plays with plenty of swag and typically comes up big in big-time situations. I am expecting another big performance from Wilson tonight playing at home, this one could be decided by a large margin.
My pick here is Seahawks over the Lions, 31-16.
This is just how I see it on Wildcard Saturday.
~David G. Ortega
January 2nd, 2017
Monday morning Edition
Monday Morning Huddle
Every Monday morning let’s huddle up and discuss the latest football news, rumors, and events from around the NFL from this fan’s perspective. Comment if you like, post a question, this is your forum to speak your mind.
Super Bowl Favorites
They have survived 17 weeks of gridiron action, 12 teams have made it to week 18, but who is the favorite to make it all the way to Super Sunday and hold up the Lombardi trophy? With the NFL regular season concluding yesterday, 12 teams have claimed their stake at a Super bowl championship, but which teams have a legitimate shot at Super success in the postseason.
Let’s start with the NFC. The Detroit Lions are a long shot to make it to the big dance having to go on the road to play Seattle. Their best chances were lost yesterday when they fell to the Packers. Looking over the six teams competing; Cowboys, Falcons, Packers, Seahawks, Giants, and Lions, the anchors in this bracket have to be the Cowboys and Packers.
The Cowboys have the formula for success with that offensive line. Dominating time-of-possession, controling the clock and dictating game flow takes so much pressure off the defense and makes it better. The Cowboys have a prolific running game, a mistake free quarterback, with a balanced defense that is tough versus the run (ranked 1st in the NFL) and does a pretty good job against the pass. Playing at home (7-1 this season) throughout the playoffs will undoubtedly make the Cowboys a tough out for everyone.
If there is an NFC team that might pose a real threat to the Cowboys, it has to be the Aaron Rodgers led Packers. Over the past two months few have been as hot as Rodgers, who has led the Pack to six straight wins and another NFC North title. During the win streak Rodgers numbers are off the charts; 278 yards passing/game, 110 rushing yards, 16 touchdowns (15 pass, 1 rush), and no interceptions. The defense could be a liability heading into the postseason, but with Rodgers under center and healthy the Packers are going to be a very tough out in the NFC (even on the road).
The Falcons may be a bit overlooked here and with Matt Ryan calling the signals they always have a chance, but where they he may fall short is on the other side of the ball. Their defense is one of the lowest ranked heading into the postseason and I am not confident they can just hope to outscore their opponents.
The Giants and Seahawks will present problems with their defense, but they have had too many issues with inconsistency on offense this season. It’s hard to imagine either team making a run that rolls through Dallas or Atlanta. Both are capable no question, but it’s a tough task to ask and chances are slim.
Over in the AFC, it’s that time of year to once again jump on the Tom Brady and New England Patriots bandwagon. How can you not like the Patriots chances with Brady under center. Since his return, Brady has been prolific leading the Patriots to an 11-1 record, including seven straight wins. During the run Brady has led the Pats to 28 points per game by throwing 16 touchdowns with only one interception. With homefield advantage throughout the Playoffs, the Pats would appear to have the inside track to Super Sunday.
While all of the AFC participants (Chiefs, Raiders, Texans, and Dolphins) have a legitimate shot, just one stands out like a real threat in my opinion; the Steelers. The defense is not the newly resurrected Steel Curtain, but during their seven game win streak the defense has allowed just 17 points per game while recording 25 sacks and 13 turnovers.
The Steelers defense is playing well, but their wild-card has always been quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and the offense. With super weapons like wide receiver Antonio Brown (106 receptions, 1,284 yards receiving, 12 touchdowns) and running back LeVeon Bell (1,268 yards rushing, 75 receptions, 616 yards receiving) the Steelers are going to pose a lot of matchup problems for opponents throughout the playoffs.
If I am going to make predictions, I like Rodgers and the Packers traveling to Dallas in the NFC Championship, while Big Ben and the Steelers will make the trip to Foxboro to meet the Patriots. For the Super matchup on Super Bowl Sunday, I am putting my money on the two best quarterbacks in the league to meet; Rodgers versus Brady, the Packers and the Patriots.
This is just conjecture and speculation, but this is my take for the Superbowl favorites.
~David G. Ortega
