January 11th, 2017
Wednesday late evening Edition
Wednesday Watercooler: Part 1
Every Wednesday it’s time to gather around the Watercooler and discuss the more football news, rumors, and topics from around the NFL from this fan’s perspective. Comment if you like, post a question, this is your forum to speak your mind.
Next Up Divisional Playoffs
It’s that time of year and as a football fan, excited is an understatement. I am a big sports fan, but with the NFL playoffs underway, that is the hot topic on the table. Last weekend there were no surprises, at least not from this fan’s perspective; I went 4-0 with my picks as all home teams were victorious. This weekend, that feat may prove to be much more difficult. With the top 4 teams from the byes set to host this round of games, picking road teams could be unwise.
In the AFC, the big dog this weekend is the New England Patriots and quarterback Tom Brady. With only 12 games under his belt this season, Brady was among the hottest quarterbacks down the stretch; his last 7 starts, 16 touchdowns with one interception. Brady, with 4 Lombardi trophies has proven to be among the greatest ever under center, he’s at home this weekend, so it’s hard to pick against him and the Pats. So I won’t.
The Patriots have just been too good for so long, Tom Terrific and company appear to be locked on a mission to reach yet another AFC title game. Their opponents the Texans are just going to be in the wrong place at the wrong time come Saturday night.
The matchup doesn’t have the makeup of a barn-burner, but Brady and the Patriots make so few mistakes, as the game moves into the later phases the efficiency of the Patriots offense will force the Texans into taking more risks and likely make mistakes. This one could eventually get away from O’Brien and company.
The early matchup has a lot of my interest, simply because no one is talking about the Atlanta Falcons, yet quarterback Matt Ryan has to be considered an MVP candidate this season. Quiet comes the Ice-man.
The Falcons and Seahawks could be the barn-burner some of us fans enjoy and are looking forward too. The Falcons have the weapons with wide receiver Julio Jones and their two-back committee with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Let’s face the Seahawks defense is not quote the same as it used to be, especially away from Centurylink Field.
Ryan and company earned the bye this season and will enjoy some home cooking on Saturday when they take the field at the Georgia Dome. This could be a huge difference in this matchup. Back in their week 6 battle with the Seahawks the Falcons fell short by two points, but in that contest Ryan passed for 335 yards passing and three touchdowns. One big key for Ryan was his favorite weapon (Julio) Jones, who posted a 7 catch (on 9 targets), 139 yards receiving, and a touchdown.
A couple of new catalysts that could prove to be huge in this matchup is the arrival of Falcons wide receiver Taylor Gabriel and the return of running back Tevin Coleman. In Gabriel’s last 8 games he posted 27 receptions for 472 yards and six touchdowns. Coming back from injury, Coleman has been a scoring machine recording 5 touchdowns in his last six games.
The Seahawks will have some weapons to boast on Saturday as well with quarterback Russell Wilson, tight end Jimmy Graham, running back Thomas Rawls, and wide receiver Doug Baldwin, but they may have trouble matching the firepower the Falcons will be rolling out.
If this game were played in Seattle, I would likely sing a different tune, but I see both defenses bending quite a bit in this one with the Falcons offense doing more damage. Not to take anything away from Wilson and company, but Ryan (4,944 yards passing, 38 touchdowns, 7 interceptions in 2016) has just been cool as ice this season.
These are my picks for Saturday’s contests....(to be continued)
January 7th 2017
Saturday Afternoon Edition
Saturday Morning Coffee
Every Saturday morning it’s time to pour a cup of Joe and discuss the more sports news, rumors, and topics from around the world of sports from this fan’s perspective. Comment if you like, post a question, this is your forum to speak your mind.
So it’s no longer morning, unless you are somewhere in the South Pacific reading this, but it’s never too late in the day for a cup of Joe. So pour a cup and join the conversation, it’s Wildcard Weekend and there’s plenty on the table to discuss today.
Let’s start with today’s matchup for openers.
The Texans and Raiders game provides some interesting storylines. Just three weeks ago, the Raiders were looking more like a team of destiny ready to make a run led by their MVP-like quarterback Derek Carr. But since Carr’s injury in week 16, the Raiders offense has fallen off a cliff.
With Raiders rookie quarterback Conner Cook slated to start and the Texans reverting back to the struggling Brock Osweiler (struggling for a $72 million dollar quarterback), today’s game could have the look of a defensive battle, more than anything else.
The Texans offense in general this season has been a disappointment with Osweiler under center. If they are to come out on top today, Brock is going to have to play a lot better. A couple of keys for him will undoubtedly be his ground game which will be in the hands of running back Lamar Miller. If Miller can have some early success (rushed for 104 yards in week 11 matchup against Raiders), this could open up the short passing game for Osweiler.
The Short passing game will be another key for the Texans today; a volume of completions is needed. If Brock can find his wideouts and in particular his security blanket (tight end) C.J. Fiedorowicz over the middle, a volume of completions will help build his confidence and may open things up downfield. If the Texans are going to overcome the Raiders, Osweiler is going to have to take his shots downfield with both of his receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller.
The Raiders biggest key in my opinion today is relying heavily on their running game to protect their young quarterback. Latavius Murray is going to be huge in this one and I believe the Raiders plan on feeding him the ball a bunch today. Only success on the ground will keep the Raiders in this one. Cook is raw, inexperienced, and on the big stage today, it just may be too much to ask, even with the weapons the Raiders possess outside.
The other biggest key for the Raiders will be their defensive playmaker and potential Defensive Player of the Year, Khalil Mack (11 sacks this season). If he can cause disruption and get to quarterback Brock Osweiler today, turnovers could be the difference in this one.
The Raiders defense will provide some short field opportunities today. With one of the strongest legs in the league, Raiders placekicker Sebastian Janikowski will cash them in, but that won’t be enough. The Texans have a stout defense and they are playing at home, and that will likely be the biggest difference in this one.
This one won’t be pretty, but I have the Texans winning this one 23-16.
For those that will be watching the later matchup as well, quite simply I like the Seahawks for all of the obvious reasons.
The Lions lack a running game, one dimensional. The Seahawks are at home, it’s a night game, weather is their friend, the 12th man, and the Lions are a dome team.
Matthew Stafford has been brilliant this season, playing like a magician leading the Lions comeback from behind time and time again. But Saturday night the magic may run out. Playing through pain and lacking a supporting cast in the run game, the offense may not have enough to be road warriors of the Northwest tonight.
The Seahawks defense is definitely no the same “Legion of Boom” many fans have come to know and love, but they still have plenty of bite with their bark, enough to cause the Lions offense plenty of problems.
And with quarterback Russell Wilson under center, the Seahawks are in good hands. Wilson plays with plenty of swag and typically comes up big in big-time situations. I am expecting another big performance from Wilson tonight playing at home, this one could be decided by a large margin.
My pick here is Seahawks over the Lions, 31-16.
This is just how I see it on Wildcard Saturday.
~David G. Ortega
